Editor’s Note: Our resident cinephile and move critic Mike Fried, author of the Mike At the Movies column, is making his predictions for Sunday night’s Academy Awards ceremony. Do you agree with Mike’s predictions?

By MIKE FRIED

I surprised myself.

Best Picture

• Bugonia

• F1

• Frankenstein

• Hamnet

• Marty Supreme

• One Battle after Another (OBAA)

• The Secret Agent

• Sentimental Value

• Sinners

• Train Dreams

One might call this treasure trove of nominees an embarrassment of riches and they’d mostly be right.  I have no idea why Bugonia has been nominated for best picture; it’s a terrific film that was ruined by the last ten minutes.  F1 is certainly a crowd pleaser and a thoroughly enjoyable picture but it is not Best Picture material.  The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value are again excellent pictures but more in line with their Best International Feature nominations. Frankenstein was a good picture not a great one and I don’t believe that it belongs in this category.  So basically it comes down to Marty Supreme, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners and Train Dreams.  Train Dreams was an extraordinary movie but it had an extraordinary performance by Joel Edgerton and he wasn’t even recognized for his performance so call long odds on this film winning best picture.  To me, the buzz about Marty Supreme was all about Chalamet, not about the film, which was just an okay film.  Similarly, Hamnet is powered by great performances by Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal but he wasn’t nominated and the entire movie seemed to be overwrought with emotions and heaviosity.  That leaves OBAA and Sinners, which just so happen to be my two favorite films of the year.  And it’s a tough call what with Sinners’ record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations (casting?!?) versus OBAA’s pre-Oscar momentum which includes the PGA award for best film.  

SHOULD WIN: OBAA

WILL WIN: OBAA

Actor in a Leading Role

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme

• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle after Another

• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

I might be the only person on the planet who was not wowed by Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme so I can’t in good conscience even pick him.  And as good as Wagner Moura was in The Secret Agent, I think that the Academy will go native and vote for an English-speaking performance.  Sad but true. 

And DiCaprio has his Oscar and despite how good he was as Bob Ferguson in OBAA, I think that is exactly what the Academy is thinking as they fill out their ballots. Ethan Hawke gives an outstanding performance as Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon.  It is a career defining performance and was for me the very best performance of the year.  But, then there is Michael B. Jordan.  He played not one but two roles in Sinners and if you rewatch, you’ll see that the greatness of the movie is how the two brothers, Smoke and Stack, behave differently. That is totally due to electric performance given by Jordan, especially given his SAG award for best actor.

SHOULD WIN: Hawke

WILL WIN: Jordan

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Benicio Del Toro – One Battle after Another

• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

• Delroy Lindo – Sinners

• Sean Penn – One Battle after Another

• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

For me, this is absolutely the toughest category to pick, although I don’t think that Jacob Elordi is good enough to have a shot at the gold statue.  There’s a caveat in that this could be another 1975 when Nicholson, Pacino, Hoffman and Finney cancelled each other out, causing Art Carney (Harry And Tonto) to win — an admitted long shot, but it could happen.  Benicio Del Toro was amazing as Sensei Sergio and despite all of the craziness going on, Sergio absolutely maintained his calm throughout.  Stellan Skarsgård gave a tremendous performance in Sentimental Value but I ultimately think that his lack of post-season momentum, with the exception of the Golden Globe, shows that he has less chances to win. I was happy to see that Delroy Lindo was nominated for his first Oscar, something that was long overdue and something I predicted when i first saw Sinners back in April.  And Sean Penn turns in yet another mesmerizing performance, this time as Colonel Steven T. Lockjaw, the main nemesis in OBAA. Given his SAG award, I think he is the guy to beat.

SHOULD WIN – Lindo

WILL WIN – Penn 

Could win: Del Toro

Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue

• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

• Emma Stone – Bugonia

To me, this is the easiest category of this year’s awards.  First off, Kate Hudson and Emma Stone did NOT deserve their nominations.  This would have been a horse race if the Academy got it right and nominated Chase Infiniti for OBAA.  Hudson delivered a lackluster performance and Stone while good was not best actress material.  I think that based upon all of the postseason activity Jessie Buckley is going to win this award hands down but I thought her performance as too overwrought-and loud, an awful lot of shouting.  I’d be happier if Rose Byrne won the award because she was just that good.  And don’t count out Reinsve who was magnificent in Sentimental Value.

SHOULD WIN: Byrne

WILL WIN: Buckley

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value

• Amy Madigan – Weapons

• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners

• Teyana Taylor – One Battle after Another

I am going to come right out and say it but no matter how good they were, Elle Fanning or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are not winning the Oscar for Sentimental Value.  My personal choice is Amy Madigan.  Her role as Aunt Gladys in Weapons was just the right amount of over the top that livened up a movie better than any of the other supporting actor performances.  Without her, Weapons is not as good a film as it is.  But Teyana Taylor has been on a roll and critically acclaimed so she could pull off a win — but her performance was more abbreviated than Madigan’s.  And let’s not count out Wunmi Mosaku from Sinners, especially if the film goes on an unexpected streak.

SHOULD WIN: Madigan

WILL WIN: Madigan

Directing

• Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

• Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

• Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

• Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

• Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

There’s really no use talking about this category in depth because it is closely tied to Best Picture – either the Academy is going to go OBAA or Sinners.

For me, it’s OBAA

SHOULD WIN: OBAA

WILL WIN: OBAA

Cinematography

• Frankenstein

• Marty Supreme

• One Battle after Another

• Sinners

• Train Dreams

Frankenstein was a really good looking movie so I think it has an inside shot of getting this technical award, but there’s also an argument to be made for Train Dreams’ beautiful and haunting imagery.  But I think that the Academy voters are like lab rats just clicking on their favorites and for me the best cinematography of the year was in both OBAA and Sinners and whichever is your favorite is going to be chosen — yeah, I hate to say that I have my lab rat hat (great name for a band) on for  OBAA – it’s brilliant VistaVision was used to great effect especially during the car chase scene up and down those hills, and I saw it in 70mm IMAX and was getting a little queasy. To me, it was the best.  However, there is no denying the artistry behind the camerawork in the pivotal “time bending” dance sequence in the film.

SHOULD WIN: OBAA

WILL WIN: OBAA

BUT A TOSS-UP

Film Editing

• F1

• Marty Supreme

• One Battle after Another

• Sentimental Value

• Sinners

To me, this will come down to the pulse pounding frenetically paced films, F1 and Sinners — I think F1 has the edge but Sinners is a definite possibility.

SHOULD WIN: SINNERS

WILL WIN: F1 

Costume Design

• Avatar: Fire and Ash

• Frankenstein – 

• Hamnet

• Marty Supreme

• Sinners

By all rights, Ruth Carter should nab her third Oscar for her costume design on Sinners — but does she fall into the “Let’s give it to someone new” category?  If that’s the case, then it is a tossup between the grand design of Frankenstein and the Victorian design of Hamnet.

SHOULD WIN: Sinners

WILL WIN: Frankenstein or Hamnet

International Feature Film

• The Secret Agent

• It Was Just an Accident

• Sentimental Value

• Sirāt

• The Voice of Hind Rajab

As good as The Secret Agent was to me, this year’s International Award is going to come down to how many people saw Sentimental Value or It Was Just an Accident.  For me, Jafar Pahani’s ode against the Iranian regime is the hands-down best picture of the year, English language or not. But Sentimental Value may have been seen by more people.

SHOULD WIN: It Was Just an Accident

WILL WIN: It Was Just an Accident

Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein

• Kokuho

• Sinners

• The Smashing Machine

• The Ugly Stepsister

This category is an easy toss-up between Frankenstein and Sinners.  If people vote for merit, it will be Frankenstein.  If people check the box with their lab rat hat on, it will be Sinners

Music (Original Score)

• Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix

• Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat

• Hamnet – Max Richter

• One Battle after Another – Jonny Greenwood

• Sinners – Ludwig Goransson

Again, this category comes down to two movies, OBAA and Sinners.

To me, Jonny Greenwood was robbed by the academy when his score for There Will Be Blood was disqualified and his score for OBAA is elegant for its simplicity, except for its short moments of bombastic orchestral maneuvers.  But Sinners is all about the music, so I think that will take home the award.

SHOULD WIN: OBAA

WILL WIN: Sinners

Production Design

• Frankenstein

• Hamnet

• Marty Supreme

• One Battle after Another

• Sinners

Honestly, I think that Frankenstein deserves this award – if there is anything this film did 1000% correctly, it was the production design.  James Whale would be proud.  

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• Bugonia

• Frankenstein

• Hamnet

• One Battle after Another

• Train Dreams

This category comes down to two films, Hamnet and OBAA.  If there was a place for the academy to throw Chloe Zhao’s movie a bone it would be here. However, and this is something that most Academy members would not realize because most only read their iPhones is that PTA’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland was nothing short of a remarkable achievement and is one of those rare instances where the screenplay exceeds the original source.

SHOULD WIN: OBAA

WILL WIN: OBAA

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• Blue Moon

• It Was Just an Accident

• Marty Supreme

• Sentimental Value

• Sinners

I also think this category comes down to two films, Sentimental Value and Sinners and I think the Academy awards the latter.  It’s a whip-smart screenplay as opposed to Sentimental Value’s good but not great one.

SHOULD WIN: Sinners

WILL WIN: Sinners

Two final comments: Yes, the song from K-Pop Demon Hunters will win best song (How can it not?), there is a thing called momentum.

And …

I have not seen all of the live action nominated short films but I have to tell you none will have been as funny as Jane Austen’s Period drama and you ought to seek it out for viewing. It is currently streaming on Kanopy so see if your library will give you access.

Have Fun!

Michael Fried has no formal training in movies, except having watched over 26,000+ movies — if not more — in his 60-plus years on this planet, starting with Goldfinger as his first cinema experience. He knows what he likes and he knows what he doesn’t like, and it’s quite often different from the conventional wisdom. He knows that the best franchise is Godzilla and he loves action movies and comedies. He has not been nominated for any awards except some boring insurance awards which has no applicability to movies (with the possible exceptions of Billy Wilder’s Double Indemnity and John Cassavettes’ Big Trouble). He is part of a team that won the 1980 SUNY Albany Trivia content by correctly guessing the question, “Who played the president of Klopstockia in Million Dollar Legs?” So he has that going for him, which is nice.

Contact Mike at moviemike3@yahoo.com and mike.fried@yahoo.com.